It can be said that the opposition has already won six districts in the elections to the Moscow City Council. Perhaps in July August there will be one or two more. But I don’t think so. It is important to clarify the term “opposition”. This is the opposition, which gets an opportunity to be an opposition not from the hands of voters, they are secondary here, but from the hands of the ruling party, from the hands of the administrative resource.
Three districts – for the Communist Party (Syuganov – grandson, Kumin, Gubenko). District No. 44 where either Shuvalova (CPRF, the current MP of the Moscow State Department) or Sviridov (“Fair Russia” will win, he is now, as well as the Uni-Russians is a self-nominated candidate). In 2014, Sviridov lost to Shuvalova. Now is a rematch with a changing dynamic. A similar situation in district 11, where zubrylin (the current MP of the Communist Party of the Communist Party) is again measured by forces with Grandma (“Apple”). Grandma still has about five thousand signatures to be passed in order to be registered. And there is a district “fixed” for the opposition from the “Homeland” party. Now Shingarkin is likely to be elected there. So far, soana and chance. The LDPR is looking for a new Balakin, but somehow not convincingly.
Moscow City Hall and AP, of course, have more chances. The election is actually over. However, there are two hypothetical risks: something will go wrong in Moscow on the eve of the elections, some crisis, not necessarily political. And then the “drying of turnout” will not work. Or, the second – in the part of the districts or in moscow as a whole, the opposition, suspended from the elections, will start a long campaign for early re-election of the Moscow City Council. Such a campaign has its own tactics in protest voting. But the quality and power of opposition teams, their age-old movement by the method of “swan, cancer and pike”, is unlikely to translate these hypothetical risks into real ones. This means that the trend of drying up the turnout for the elections in September in Moscow will continue.
“The story with the fake collectors” turnout will not raise. These are blanks for a number of districts where weak oppositionists can be registered. And where they are opposed by candidates from among the new weak “odounorosov self-nominated.” These oppositionists will miraculously be able to register by signatures. And their participation will help the weak “Okodin-boros” to win by a more convincing margin from the second place.
My opinion, the belief, on the part of signatures, is: register on the signatures of those who will collect them with administrative resources or in the non-resistance of the administrative resource. Do not forget that there may be small exceptions in each rule.
Summing up, it should be said that the opposition has no chance to improve this Moscow City Council. The experiment with the new format of the Moscow City Council, carried out by Anastasia Rakova in 2014, in my opinion, is unsuccessful. I am ready to justify this on the examples of outgoing deputies. The Muscovites lost the Moscow City Council. In fact, it is not a supervisory body of the city administration, is not a “checks and balance” and is not a “protection from a fool.” But hardly anyone on Tverskaya 13, and in most Moscow apartments, it somehow bothers. But things can change.
Yuri zagrebnaya, deputy of the Moscow City Council of the 2nd convocation, editor-in-chief of the Moscow Council.