Who and how to use the protest mood in Altai

At the moment, the status of candidates in the Republic of Altai is held by the current Vrio Oleg Horokhordin (United Russia), Dmitry Sofronov (LDPR), Viktor Romashkin (CPRF), Mikhail Solovyov (“People’s Patriotic Party of Russia – Power to the People”) and Leonid Efimov “Just Russia”. All of them passed the documents to the electoral commission.

To determine the position of each of the candidates here and now, colleagues from the Altai Center of Political Consulting conducted a study. This is one of the interim analyses, so to draw conclusions that with such results the region will come to the day of voting, hastily.

The work was published in mid-June. Analysts made about 600 questionnaires, collecting them was carried out through a house-to-house round. 1,488 respondents participated in the survey. In the end, the picture was the following.

Exactly going to the elections on September 9, 2019 58% of respondents, exactly will not go to the elections -15% . The rating of candidates for the head of the Altai Republic, depending on the turnout of respondents, is as follows:

Oleg Horohordin (EP) – 53.1%,

Victor Romashkin (CPRF) – 27.2%,

Dmitry Sofronov (LDPR) – 7.8%

Leonid Efimov (SR) – 3.9%

I’ll spoil the ballot – 3.2%

The anti-rating of candidates for the post of head of the Republic of Altai is as such:

Oleg Horohordin (EP) – 17.5%,

Viktor Romashkin (CPRF) – 10.3%,

Dmitry Sofronov (LDPR) – 5.4%

Leonid Efimov (SR) – 1.9%

As you can see, Horokhordin has a high rating and anti-rating. The significant anti-rating can be explained in principle by the attitude of local residents to the regional government, to the United Russia, from which the candidate is nominated, and by the fact that since his appearance in the region he “clinged” to Berdnikov’s legacy. Now he is actively rebuilding from him.

As for the election campaign itself, only Horohordin is the most active in the region. Including social media. His headquarters uses opposition rhetoric, criticizes road repairs, waste disposal – in general, all those federal problems that are relevant to any Russian region.

At the same time, Horohordin actively meets with federal ministers, the president’s representative in the SFO, Sergey Meniylo, holds talks in Moscow and Novosibirsk – uses the same scenario as other governors.

The most famous of the other candidates is the communist Viktor Romashkin. He is an experienced politician with a great background. Romashkin was first elected as a member of the State Assembly-El Kurultai of the Republic of Altai in 1993, in 1996-2000 he was a member of the State Duma. In the previous elections of the head of the region in September 2014, he came third with the support of 7.7% of voters. Then he lost not only to the current head of the republic Alexander Berdnikov, but also to the former head of the regional government Vladimir Petrov, who received 50.6% and 36.4% of the votes respectively. In general, according to the measurements of the Altai Center for Political Consulting, the support of the Communist Party in the region varies from 20 to 25%.

As for the other candidates, their level of recognition is much lower, or the party from which they go does not have the resources to fully support the campaign. The leader of the New Russia movement, political scientist Nikita Isayev, who came to the republic for the second time, but this time as an envoy from the SS, tried to change the agenda a few days ago. He supported Leonid Efimov and threatened to swing the protest, which, by the way, to do in the territory of the Republic of Altai is not so difficult. In his telegram channel, he stated that the purpose of his visit to Altai was “state-sponsored”, namely, “to accumulate protest.” However, it did not go further than words, probably decided to pause before the registration of the candidate from right-wing Leonid Efimov.

In his speech, Isayev did not rule out that a second round is possible in the republic. Experts of the Institute of Politics and Technology believe that such a scenario is possible, but only if all opposition candidates withdraw their candidacies in favor of one of them. And they will support a single representative from the opposition. At the same time, the region will pump up the protest background, with the “burning of the earth” as it was in Khakasia. However, in our opinion this will not happen, as Altai political technologists tried to gather and unite the opposition last fall, and this attempt failed. When there are rumors about a supposedly single candidate, representatives of other opposition parties begin to make a claim against him, and instead of consolidation begins to tear up.

Tatiana Kosacheva, Head of the Institute of Policy and Technology.

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